Prop firm probability calculator

Stop guessing. Run the math.

Model thousands of prop evaluation paths using your own win rate, reward-to-risk ratio, risk per trade, and number of evaluations.

10,000 simulationsYour assumptionsNo performance claims

YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

Build your scenario

Auto-calculates

Win rate 50%

10%90%

Reward : Risk 1.00 : 1

: 1

Enter any R:R you want. Example: 1.5 means +1.5R on a winner and -1R on a loser. Risk per trade 25%

5% of drawdown50%

Evaluations 10

150

Evaluation rules Customize

Profit target

Maximum drawdown

Defaults are an example scenario, not a specific prop firm's current rules. Customize these numbers to match the evaluation you want to model.

Risk dollars per trade$500

Target in R6.0R

Failure threshold-4.0R

Simulation only. Outputs are estimates produced from the assumptions you choose and do not predict actual trading results, evaluation outcomes, payouts, or profitability.

ESTIMATED PASS RATE UNDER THESE ASSUMPTIONS — Run the simulation to see the result.

Chance at least one passes—Across 10 evaluations

Expected passes—Out of 10 evaluations

Risk of failing one eval—Simulation complement

Average attempts per pass—Based on simulated pass rate

Median trades to outcome—Pass or fail

Expected failures—Out of 10 evaluations

WHAT HAPPENS AS YOU SCALE?

More evaluations change the probability distribution.

Evaluations	Chance ≥1 pass	Expected passes

Chance at least one passes

100 SIMULATED TRADERS

Same assumptions. Different paths.

Run the simulation to see how 100 independent paths can finish.

PassFail

Why the inputs matter

A 50% win rate does not tell the whole story.

Pass probability changes when you change reward-to-risk, risk per trade, the profit target, or the drawdown limit. This calculator is designed to make those assumptions visible instead of hiding them behind a single viral statistic.

WIN RATEHow often a simulated trade wins.

R:RHow large the modeled winner is relative to the modeled loser.

RISKHow much of the evaluation's drawdown allowance is exposed per trade.

RULESHow far the account must travel to pass before it reaches the failure boundary.

Once you have multiple accounts

Passing is one problem.
Managing them is another.

TradeLink lets futures traders place a trade once and distribute it across their connected accounts with account-by-account sizing and controls.

Up to 150 accounts$40/month one planTradovate + NinjaTrader

See TradeLink

Important disclosures

This is a math tool, not a forecast.

Simulation only. The calculator generates hypothetical outcomes from the assumptions you enter. It does not estimate your personal skill, predict your future trading results, guarantee an evaluation pass, guarantee funded status, or guarantee any payout.

Real trading outcomes are not simple independent coin flips. Actual win rates, losses, reward-to-risk, slippage, commissions, execution, market conditions, discipline, strategy changes, and account behavior can differ materially from the assumptions entered here.

Prop firm rules vary and may change. Real evaluations may include trailing drawdowns, intraday or end-of-day loss calculations, daily loss limits, consistency rules, minimum trading days, position limits, scaling rules, restricted products or times, payout restrictions, account closures, and other requirements this simplified simulation may not model.

Passing an evaluation is separate from receiving or retaining a funded account and separate from receiving a payout. Users are responsible for reviewing the current rules, agreements, and eligibility requirements of any prop firm they use.

TradeLink and PeakBot do not provide investment, trading, legal, tax, or financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every trader. Past or hypothetical performance is not indicative of future results.